An Estimate of the Global Burden of Anthropogenic Ozone and Fine Particulate Matter on Premature Human Mortality Using Atmospheric Modeling
Identifieur interne : 000797 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 000796; suivant : 000798An Estimate of the Global Burden of Anthropogenic Ozone and Fine Particulate Matter on Premature Human Mortality Using Atmospheric Modeling
Auteurs : Susan C. Anenberg [États-Unis] ; Larry W. Horowitz [États-Unis] ; Daniel Q. Tong [États-Unis] ; J. Jason West [États-Unis]Source :
- Environmental Health Perspectives [ 0091-6765 ] ; 2010.
Abstract
Ground-level concentrations of ozone (O3) and fine particulate matter [≤ 2.5 μm in aerodynamic diameter (PM2.5)] have increased since preindustrial times in urban and rural regions and are associated with cardiovascular and respiratory mortality.
We estimated the global burden of mortality due to O3 and PM2.5 from anthropogenic emissions using global atmospheric chemical transport model simulations of preindustrial and present-day (2000) concentrations to derive exposure estimates.
Attributable mortalities were estimated using health impact functions based on long-term relative risk estimates for O3 and PM2.5 from the epidemiology literature. Using simulated concentrations rather than previous methods based on measurements allows the inclusion of rural areas where measurements are often unavailable and avoids making assumptions for background air pollution.
Anthropogenic O3 was associated with an estimated 0.7 ± 0.3 million respiratory mortalities (6.3 ± 3.0 million years of life lost) annually. Anthropogenic PM2.5 was associated with 3.5 ± 0.9 million cardiopulmonary and 220,000 ± 80,000 lung cancer mortalities (30 ± 7.6 million years of life lost) annually. Mortality estimates were reduced approximately 30% when we assumed low-concentration thresholds of 33.3 ppb for O3 and 5.8 μg/m3 for PM2.5. These estimates were sensitive to concentration thresholds and concentration–mortality relationships, often by > 50%.
Anthropogenic O3 and PM2.5 contribute substantially to global premature mortality. PM2.5 mortality estimates are about 50% higher than previous measurement-based estimates based on common assumptions, mainly because of methodologic differences. Specifically, we included rural populations, suggesting higher estimates; however, the coarse resolution of the global atmospheric model may underestimate urban PM2.5 exposures.
Url:
DOI: 10.1289/ehp.0901220
PubMed: 20382579
PubMed Central: 2944076
Affiliations:
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<record><TEI><teiHeader><fileDesc><titleStmt><title xml:lang="en">An Estimate of the Global Burden of Anthropogenic Ozone and Fine Particulate Matter on Premature Human Mortality Using Atmospheric Modeling</title><author><name sortKey="Anenberg, Susan C" sort="Anenberg, Susan C" uniqKey="Anenberg S" first="Susan C." last="Anenberg">Susan C. Anenberg</name><affiliation wicri:level="4"><nlm:aff id="af1-ehp-118-1189"> University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea> University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, North Carolina</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">Caroline du Nord</region></placeName><orgName type="university">Université de Caroline du Nord à Chapel Hill</orgName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Horowitz, Larry W" sort="Horowitz, Larry W" uniqKey="Horowitz L" first="Larry W." last="Horowitz">Larry W. Horowitz</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:aff id="af2-ehp-118-1189"> Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Princeton, New Jersey, USA</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea> Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Princeton, New Jersey</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">New Jersey</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Tong, Daniel Q" sort="Tong, Daniel Q" uniqKey="Tong D" first="Daniel Q." last="Tong">Daniel Q. Tong</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:aff id="af3-ehp-118-1189"> Science and Technology Corporation, Silver Spring, Maryland, USA</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea> Science and Technology Corporation, Silver Spring, Maryland</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">Maryland</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="West, J Jason" sort="West, J Jason" uniqKey="West J" first="J. Jason" last="West">J. Jason West</name><affiliation wicri:level="4"><nlm:aff id="af1-ehp-118-1189"> University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea> University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, North Carolina</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">Caroline du Nord</region></placeName><orgName type="university">Université de Caroline du Nord à Chapel Hill</orgName></affiliation></author></titleStmt><publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">PMC</idno><idno type="pmid">20382579</idno><idno type="pmc">2944076</idno><idno type="url">http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2944076</idno><idno type="RBID">PMC:2944076</idno><idno type="doi">10.1289/ehp.0901220</idno><date when="2010">2010</date><idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Corpus">000693</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Curation">000693</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Checkpoint">000385</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Ncbi/Merge">000373</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Ncbi/Curation">000373</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Ncbi/Checkpoint">000373</idno><idno type="wicri:doubleKey">0091-6765:2010:Anenberg S:an:estimate:of</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Main/Merge">000800</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Main/Curation">000797</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Main/Exploration">000797</idno></publicationStmt><sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en" level="a" type="main">An Estimate of the Global Burden of Anthropogenic Ozone and Fine Particulate Matter on Premature Human Mortality Using Atmospheric Modeling</title><author><name sortKey="Anenberg, Susan C" sort="Anenberg, Susan C" uniqKey="Anenberg S" first="Susan C." last="Anenberg">Susan C. Anenberg</name><affiliation wicri:level="4"><nlm:aff id="af1-ehp-118-1189"> University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea> University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, North Carolina</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">Caroline du Nord</region></placeName><orgName type="university">Université de Caroline du Nord à Chapel Hill</orgName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Horowitz, Larry W" sort="Horowitz, Larry W" uniqKey="Horowitz L" first="Larry W." last="Horowitz">Larry W. Horowitz</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:aff id="af2-ehp-118-1189"> Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Princeton, New Jersey, USA</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea> Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Princeton, New Jersey</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">New Jersey</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Tong, Daniel Q" sort="Tong, Daniel Q" uniqKey="Tong D" first="Daniel Q." last="Tong">Daniel Q. Tong</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:aff id="af3-ehp-118-1189"> Science and Technology Corporation, Silver Spring, Maryland, USA</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea> Science and Technology Corporation, Silver Spring, Maryland</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">Maryland</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="West, J Jason" sort="West, J Jason" uniqKey="West J" first="J. Jason" last="West">J. Jason West</name><affiliation wicri:level="4"><nlm:aff id="af1-ehp-118-1189"> University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea> University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, North Carolina</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">Caroline du Nord</region></placeName><orgName type="university">Université de Caroline du Nord à Chapel Hill</orgName></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">Environmental Health Perspectives</title><idno type="ISSN">0091-6765</idno><idno type="e-ISSN">1552-9924</idno><imprint><date when="2010">2010</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><sec><title>Background</title><p>Ground-level concentrations of ozone (O<sub>3</sub>) and fine particulate matter [≤ 2.5 μm in aerodynamic diameter (PM<sub>2.5</sub>)] have increased since preindustrial times in urban and rural regions and are associated with cardiovascular and respiratory mortality.</p></sec><sec><title>Objectives</title><p>We estimated the global burden of mortality due to O<sub>3</sub> and PM<sub>2.5</sub> from anthropogenic emissions using global atmospheric chemical transport model simulations of preindustrial and present-day (2000) concentrations to derive exposure estimates.</p></sec><sec><title>Methods</title><p>Attributable mortalities were estimated using health impact functions based on long-term relative risk estimates for O<sub>3</sub> and PM<sub>2.5</sub> from the epidemiology literature. Using simulated concentrations rather than previous methods based on measurements allows the inclusion of rural areas where measurements are often unavailable and avoids making assumptions for background air pollution.</p></sec><sec><title>Results</title><p>Anthropogenic O<sub>3</sub> was associated with an estimated 0.7 ± 0.3 million respiratory mortalities (6.3 ± 3.0 million years of life lost) annually. Anthropogenic PM<sub>2.5</sub> was associated with 3.5 ± 0.9 million cardiopulmonary and 220,000 ± 80,000 lung cancer mortalities (30 ± 7.6 million years of life lost) annually. Mortality estimates were reduced approximately 30% when we assumed low-concentration thresholds of 33.3 ppb for O<sub>3</sub> and 5.8 μg/m<sup>3</sup> for PM<sub>2.5</sub>. These estimates were sensitive to concentration thresholds and concentration–mortality relationships, often by > 50%.</p></sec><sec><title>Conclusions</title><p>Anthropogenic O<sub>3</sub> and PM<sub>2.5</sub> contribute substantially to global premature mortality. PM<sub>2.5</sub> mortality estimates are about 50% higher than previous measurement-based estimates based on common assumptions, mainly because of methodologic differences. Specifically, we included rural populations, suggesting higher estimates; however, the coarse resolution of the global atmospheric model may underestimate urban PM<sub>2.5</sub> exposures.</p></sec></div></front><back><div1 type="bibliography"><listBibl><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Akimoto, H" uniqKey="Akimoto H">H Akimoto</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Anderson, Hr" uniqKey="Anderson H">HR Anderson</name></author><author><name sortKey="Atkinson, Wa" uniqKey="Atkinson W">WA Atkinson</name></author><author><name sortKey="Peacock, Jl" uniqKey="Peacock J">JL Peacock</name></author><author><name sortKey="Marston, L" uniqKey="Marston L">L Marston</name></author><author><name sortKey="Konstantinou, K" uniqKey="Konstantinou K">K Konstantinou</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Anenberg, Sc" uniqKey="Anenberg S">SC Anenberg</name></author><author><name sortKey="West, Jj" 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M">MJ Prather</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Zanobetti, A" uniqKey="Zanobetti A">A Zanobetti</name></author><author><name sortKey="Schwartz, J" uniqKey="Schwartz J">J Schwartz</name></author><author><name sortKey="Gold, D" uniqKey="Gold D">D Gold</name></author></analytic></biblStruct></listBibl></div1></back></TEI><affiliations><list><country><li>États-Unis</li></country><region><li>Caroline du Nord</li><li>Maryland</li><li>New Jersey</li></region><orgName><li>Université de Caroline du Nord à Chapel Hill</li></orgName></list><tree><country name="États-Unis"><region name="Caroline du Nord"><name sortKey="Anenberg, Susan C" sort="Anenberg, Susan C" uniqKey="Anenberg S" first="Susan C." last="Anenberg">Susan C. Anenberg</name></region><name sortKey="Horowitz, Larry W" sort="Horowitz, Larry W" uniqKey="Horowitz L" first="Larry W." last="Horowitz">Larry W. Horowitz</name><name sortKey="Tong, Daniel Q" sort="Tong, Daniel Q" uniqKey="Tong D" first="Daniel Q." last="Tong">Daniel Q. Tong</name><name sortKey="West, J Jason" sort="West, J Jason" uniqKey="West J" first="J. Jason" last="West">J. Jason West</name></country></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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